Rupee Rises 11 Paise to 85.93/$ Despite Crude Surge and Weak Equities

RBI intervention at 86.20 likely; global oil prices and geopolitical tensions impact currency outlook

New Delhi: June 17, 2025

The Indian rupee appreciated by 11 paise to open at 85.93 against the US dollar on Tuesday, despite a backdrop of rising global oil prices, a firmer dollar, and a weak start in domestic equity markets. The currency had closed at 86.04 on Monday.

RBI Activity Seen Around 86.20 Level

Market participants observed the rupee holding firm near the 86.20 mark, a level where the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reportedly been selling dollars to curb volatility and defend the currency.

Oil Prices Firm Amid Israel-Iran Conflict

Global crude oil prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude was trading at $73.48 per barrel, up 0.34% in futures trade. The gains followed a recent spike in oil prices attributed to ongoing geopolitical risks and fears of supply disruption.

Equity Markets Open Lower

Domestic equity indices opened weak.
The BSE Sensex declined 127.02 points to 81,669.13, while the Nifty fell 55 points to 24,891.50 in early trade.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against six major currencies, rose by 0.17% to 98.16, further pressuring emerging market currencies.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 2,539.42 crore on Monday, reflecting continued selling pressure in the Indian market.

Trade Deficit Narrows in May

India’s exports contracted 2.17% year-on-year to $38.73 billion in May after two consecutive months of growth.
Imports fell by 1.7% to $60.61 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to $21.88 billion, according to official data released on Monday.

Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.6%

India’s unemployment rate increased to 5.6% in May, compared to 5.1% in April, attributed to seasonal fluctuations, as per the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.

Rupee Range Expected Between 85.75–86.30

Currency movement is expected to stay within the 85.75 to 86.30 range in the near term, depending on crude oil trends, FPI flows, and RBI’s market operations.