Indus Waters Treaty: What it is, and how India’s decision will affect its relationship with Pakistan

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is an agreement on water-sharing between India and Pakistan, signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations, facilitated by the World Bank. The treaty was designed to ensure a fair and peaceful distribution of the waters of the Indus River system, which consists of six major rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. This agreement was reached in the context of significant post-partition tensions and aimed to prevent water conflicts in an already volatile region.

Key aspects of the treaty:

• Division of the Rivers: Under the treaty, three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—were allocated almost entirely to Pakistan, while the remaining three rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—were allocated to India. India has limited rights to use these rivers primarily for agricultural, domestic, and non-consumptive purposes, such as generating hydroelectric power.
• Water Distribution: Approximately 80% of the water from the Indus system is designated for Pakistan, leaving India with access to only around 20% of the water resources.

The treaty also established the Permanent Indus Commission, which includes commissioners from both nations. This commission meets at least once a year to oversee water management, resolve disputes, and ensure that both sides adhere to the terms of the agreement. Over the years, this mechanism has been pivotal in preventing conflicts over water resources between the two countries.

Recent developments and India’s decision:

On April 23, 2025, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian government, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, made a significant decision regarding the Indus Waters Treaty. In a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), attended by key ministers, including Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, it was decided that India would suspend its participation in the treaty.

This move is largely seen as a direct response to the security concerns raised by the attack in Pahalgam, which escalated tensions between the two countries. While the suspension of the treaty does not immediately imply a halt in water distribution, it signals India’s growing frustration with Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism.

Key implications of India’s decision:

1. Water Security Concerns:
   Pakistan, which heavily depends on the Indus system for its water needs, could face serious water scarcity issues if India suspends its participation in the treaty. This move could directly affect Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which relies on the rivers allocated to it under the treaty. Additionally, industries and communities dependent on these water resources could experience a shortage, potentially leading to economic instability and increased humanitarian challenges in Pakistan.
2. Diplomatic Tensions:
   This decision is likely to significantly heighten diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan. The Indus Waters Treaty has, until now, been one of the few areas of cooperation between the two countries despite their longstanding political and territorial disputes.
3. Strategic Consequences:
   Strategically, this decision may be interpreted as a strong signal from India regarding its stance on national security and Pakistan’s role in supporting terrorism. India’s decision to leverage its control over a crucial natural resource like water is seen as an effort to apply pressure on Pakistan. This could shift the regional balance of power, making water management a potential tool of strategic influence for India.
4. International Reaction:
   The international community, including the United Nations and major global powers like the United States and China, will closely monitor India’s move. These countries have an interest in maintaining regional stability, especially given the importance of water resources for agriculture and economy in South Asia. The World Bank, which played a critical role in brokering the 1960 treaty, may also intervene to facilitate negotiations between the two countries.
   Furthermore, Pakistan may seek international intervention, either through diplomatic channels or in international legal bodies like the International Court of Justice (ICJ), to ensure the treaty is upheld and to safeguard its water rights.
5. Legal Implications:
   The suspension of the treaty raises legal questions regarding the breach of international agreements. Water-sharing treaties are generally considered binding under international law, and India’s decision could be challenged in courts or arbitration bodies. While the treaty includes mechanisms for dispute resolution, such as the Permanent Indus Commission, the legal consequences of halting participation could set a dangerous precedent for future treaties involving water resources.

India’s suspension of its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty represents a major shift in regional geopolitics, with both immediate and long-term implications. This decision highlights India’s increasing use of natural resources, such as water, as a tool for strategic leverage. The move is expected to escalate tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, potentially disrupting the fragile peace in the region and posing significant economic, diplomatic, and humanitarian challenges. As the situation evolves, international intervention and diplomatic negotiations will likely play a critical role in determining the future of the Indus Waters Treaty and the stability of South Asia.