Will AAP win or BJP & Congress turn the tables?

10 key factors that will decide the outcome of the Delhi Elections

The Delhi elections are set to determine whether Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retains power or if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress manage to stage an upset. Here are the ten crucial factors that could influence the results.

1. Voter Turnout

In 2015, voter turnout in Delhi was 67.13%, which dropped to 62.59% in 2020. Both elections were held on a Saturday when many people went on weekend trips. This time, voting is on a Wednesday, which could lead to higher participation. The direction of this increased turnout remains uncertain.

2. Split Voting Pattern

Since the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, split voting has been a trend—voters often support one party in parliamentary elections and another in state elections. Many Delhi voters admire both Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi, making their choices unpredictable.

3. Leadership Face-Off

The election is largely a contest between two prominent faces: Arvind Kejriwal for AAP and Narendra Modi leading BJP’s campaign. While Kejriwal remains a trusted figure in Delhi, Modi’s mass appeal cannot be ignored. The public’s choice of leadership will be a key factor.

4. Party Cadres and Grassroots Mobilization

BJP is known for its strong election-day mobilization, with help from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The organization played a significant role in Haryana and Maharashtra elections. Reports suggest that RSS is aiming to secure 50 seats for BJP this time. However, AAP also has a well-organized grassroots network, making the competition intense.

5. Free Welfare Schemes

AAP has built its governance model on free electricity, water, and social welfare schemes. It has promised ₹2,100 per month for women, while BJP has countered with ₹2,500. BJP has also assured that it will not discontinue any existing welfare schemes. The question is—which party’s welfare promises will voters trust more?

6. Religion and Minority Votes

Caste politics is not a major factor in Delhi, but religious sentiments do influence voting patterns. BJP has been actively trying to mobilize Hindu voters, while AAP has significant support from minority communities. Congress, however, is attempting to cut into AAP’s minority vote base. Several seats will see triangular contests where any party could gain an edge.

7. Women Voters’ Role

Women voters could be a game-changer, not just because of financial incentives like ₹2,100 or ₹2,500, but also due to the liquor policy controversy. Many women were at the forefront of protests against increased liquor shops in residential areas. Their dissatisfaction with the liquor policy may impact AAP’s performance.

8. Business & Middle-Class Voters

Business owners, auto drivers, and salaried employees are key voter segments. Both AAP and BJP have made promises to support them. However, BJP made a significant move by promising tax exemptions on income up to ₹12 lakh, benefiting nearly half of Delhi’s population. This could shift middle-class votes in its favor.

9. Slum Dwellers & Rural Delhi

In 2020, slum dwellers overwhelmingly supported AAP. However, over the past six months, RSS has been actively working in Delhi’s villages, promoting BJP’s development plans. If their outreach succeeds, it could affect AAP’s vote share in these areas.

10. Vote Distribution & Swing Factor

Analysts suggest that if BJP manages to cut 5% of AAP’s votes and Congress gains another 5%, it could significantly weaken AAP’s position. While AAP has won some seats by large margins, many constituencies have been closely contested. Even a slight swing in votes could lead to big shifts in the final results.

Conclusion: The Delhi elections remain unpredictable, with AAP, BJP, and Congress locked in a fierce battle. The final verdict will depend on voter turnout, leadership appeal, welfare promises, and shifting loyalties in key voter groups.

Also read :- ECI enforces exit poll ban ahead of Delhi Assembly elections

Aniket Sardhana

[AniketSardhana] has spent over [8] years in the media industry, honing [his/her/their] craft in political analysis. At Newsisland, [she/] are committed to delivering in-depth coverage that resonates with readers and sparks meaningful conversations.

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