The US has cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, with President Donald Trump linking the move to Russian oil. India has not confirmed any commitment; data points to adjustment, not a halt.
The United States has reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. This followed remarks by US President Donald Trump, who linked the tariff rollback to discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on India’s oil imports. According to the US side, the linkage forms part of Washington’s efforts to curb Russia’s energy revenues amid the war in Ukraine.
However, official communication from New Delhi has been limited to acknowledging the tariff reduction as a trade-related development. So far, Indian government statements have made no reference to Russian oil imports or to any commitment to alter existing sourcing arrangements. Notably, no joint statement or policy notification has been issued.
What has been made official
The White House has confirmed that a punitive tariff layer imposed earlier was withdrawn. As a result, duties on Indian exports have been brought down to 18%. US officials have stated that the decision followed assurances from India on recalibrating Russian oil imports. These claims, however, have been articulated through presidential remarks and official briefings, rather than through a formal agreement.
India, by contrast, has officially acknowledged only the tariff reduction and its implications for bilateral trade. Importantly, there has been no government notification, cabinet decision, or executive order indicating that India has agreed to halt or phase out Russian crude imports. Nor, at this stage, has there been a joint announcement outlining a binding understanding between the two sides.
How much oil does India buy from Russia — and at what price?
Russia has been a major crude supplier to India since 2022. At its peak in mid-2025, India was importing about 1.6–1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil. Subsequently, volumes eased. In late 2025, imports averaged 1.2–1.5 million bpd, accounting for roughly 25–35% of India’s total crude imports.
Notably, a sharp decline was recorded in December 2025. Imports fell month-on-month as price discounts narrowed and transaction-related frictions increased. Even so, Russian oil continued to be delivered under existing contracts into early 2026.
In value terms, India’s imports of Russian crude in 2024 are estimated at $50–53 billion. Here, pricing has been decisive. Discounts that once ranged between $20–30 per barrel to Brent narrowed steadily through 2024 and 2025. By early 2026, discounts were closer to $10 per barrel. Consequently, on a time-weighted basis, India’s annual savings from Russian oil are estimated at $5–8 billion.
Market adjustment, not a policy shift
Recent movements in import volumes reflect commercial decisions rather than policy intervention. Specifically, Indian refiners have reduced fresh Russian orders due to lower discounts and higher compliance costs. At the same time, cargoes already contracted have continued to arrive. So far, no major refiner has announced cancellations.
Meanwhile, refiners have increased sourcing from the Middle East and, intermittently, the United States. Accordingly, analysts describe this as routine optimisation within India’s crude procurement strategy rather than evidence of a sudden realignment.
What would happen if India stopped Russian imports
An abrupt halt would have economic and operational implications. To begin with, India imports nearly 85% of its crude oil requirements. Therefore, replacing discounted Russian supplies would increase the import bill, with consequences for fuel prices and inflation.
In addition, there are technical constraints. Several Indian refineries are configured to process heavier Russian crude grades. As a result, a rapid switch to alternative blends would require adjustments and, in some cases, additional investment. This, in turn, would affect refinery margins and output.
Beyond economics, Russia remains a key defence and nuclear energy partner for India. Accordingly, energy trade forms part of a wider bilateral relationship, making a sudden disengagement difficult.
The present position
Taken together, the available evidence points to caution rather than a decisive shift. The US has officially announced the tariff reduction and linked it to discussions on Russian oil. India, however, has officially welcomed the tariff relief without confirming any binding commitment on energy imports.
Meanwhile, import data shows a decline in Russian oil purchases since December 2025. Crucially, the change appears driven by market conditions rather than a declared policy decision. Until New Delhi issues a formal statement or policy measure, claims that India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil remain unsubstantiated.
